Will DOGE Fix the Green Card Backlog? How Musk’s Efficiency Push Could Reshape High-Skilled Immigration

Elon Musk’s Statement Sparks Speculation

In October 2024, Elon Musk took to Twitter with a bold statement:

The tweet immediately sparked speculation about how the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—which has been aggressively auditing federal agencies and pushing for cost-cutting measures—might intervene in one of the most pressing immigration issues.

The U.S. immigration system has long been plagued by inefficiency, bureaucratic delays, and decade-long backlogs that disproportionately impact high-skilled foreign professionals, particularly those from India and China. With Musk’s direct involvement and the Trump administration signaling a renewed focus on streamlining government functions, DOGE could play a pivotal role in reshaping high-skilled immigration.

While specific policies remain unclear, DOGE’s efficiency-driven mandate suggests that several reforms could be on the table. Here’s how it might impact high-skilled immigration in the coming years.

1. A Shift Toward Merit-Based Immigration

The current green card system allocates employment-based visas using a per-country cap of 7%, regardless of demand. This outdated structure has resulted in massive wait times for professionals from countries like India and China, while green cards for other nations often go unused.

DOGE could advocate for a merit-based system that prioritizes skills and economic contributions rather than arbitrary per-country quotas. This would:

• Drastically reduce wait times for professionals in high-demand fields.
• Allow companies to sponsor top talent without nationality-based restrictions.
• Ensure that green cards go to the most qualified individuals rather than being distributed unevenly.

Musk has previously voiced support for policies that attract top-tier talent, making this reform a potential priority.

2. Ending the Diversity Visa Lottery?

One of the more controversial moves DOGE might support is eliminating the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery, which allocates 55,000 green cards per year based on random selection rather than professional qualifications.

• Critics argue that the lottery is outdated and does not contribute to the economy.
• Supporters believe it promotes global diversity and fairness in the immigration process.

If DOGE pushes for a redistribution of DV green cards to high-skilled immigrants, it could increase the number of employment-based green cards and alleviate backlogs. However, such a move would likely face strong political opposition.

3. Entrepreneur & Startup Visa Reforms

Musk’s personal journey—from an immigrant entrepreneur to the world’s richest man—positions him as a strong advocate for startup visa reforms.

Currently, the U.S. lacks a dedicated entrepreneur visa, making it difficult for innovators and startup founders to establish businesses. DOGE could push for:

• A streamlined startup visa program modeled after Canada’s and the UK’s.
• Expansion of the International Entrepreneur Rule (IER) to grant longer-term status to founders.
• Clearer pathways for foreign investors and startup employees to obtain visas.

Such reforms would help the U.S. remain competitive in the global race for tech and innovation talent.

4. A Digital-First, AI-Driven Immigration System

One of the biggest inefficiencies in U.S. immigration is the reliance on outdated, paper-based processes that slow down applications, create backlogs, and cause unnecessary delays. USCIS processing times for green cards and work visas have skyrocketed due to manual case handling, redundant paperwork, and a lack of real-time case tracking.

DOGE could push for a fully digital and AI-enhanced immigration system, streamlining how green cards and visas are processed. This could include:

• AI-driven adjudication to speed up routine case processing while allowing officers to focus on complex cases.
• Automated fraud detection and document verification to improve efficiency without compromising security.
• Electronic case management and real-time tracking for applicants and employers, reducing uncertainty in the process.
• Digitizing USCIS workflows to eliminate physical mail delays and misplaced applications.

A modernized, AI-powered system would drastically cut down processing times, helping high-skilled professionals secure work authorization and green cards in months instead of years.

What’s Next?

While DOGE’s exact strategy remains uncertain, its emphasis on efficiency and Musk’s direct involvement suggest that employment-based immigration reforms are on the horizon. If DOGE successfully pushes for automation, backlog reduction, and a merit-based system, it could mark one of the most significant transformations in U.S. immigration policy in decades.

However, legislative and political challenges remain. Any major immigration reform requires congressional approval, and proposed changes—especially the elimination of the Diversity Visa Lottery—could face fierce opposition.

Nonetheless, with Musk’s backing and the Trump administration prioritizing government efficiency, high-skilled immigration may finally see long-overdue reforms. Whether DOGE becomes a true force for change or just another bureaucratic experiment remains to be seen—but for now, high-skilled professionals have reason to be optimistic.